Llanelli and the next General Election

There has been a lot of discussion since the last Assembly election about the next General election battle for the Llanelli parliamentary seat. Since 1999 the Assembly seat has been synonymous of how well either Labour or Plaid performs. It is symbolic because it is the front line of the war between the two parties. With a weak Labour party and a strong Plaid candidate, there is a strong chance that Plaid Cymru could capture the seat, and in the long term potentially doing what Labour did to the Liberal Party in 1922. That is, to secure Llanelli as a safe Plaid seat like Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.

Vaughan Roderick wrote back in July:

But if Plaid Cymru is serious in its aspiration to become Wales' largest party it will be necessary to win the other constituencies of the two counties.

Not that it's easy, but Llanelli is the easiest of the three to take. In the 2005 election Nia Griffith won 46.5% of the vote. 26.6% voted for the Tories or the Liberal Democrats. In the assembly elections Plaid Cymru succeeded to squeeze that vote down to 13.8%. If Plaid were able to do that in a parliamentary election the seat would be within their grasp. But there are two difficult questions: will it be possible to gain the anti-Labour vote after forming a coalition in Cardiff Bay, and is the party willing to gamble the assembly seat by persuading Helen Mary Jones to stand for the parliamentary seat?

Yes, many of Plaid’s successes are down to the popularity of Helen Mary Jones. After claiming a 3,000 vote majority at the last election she would have a good chance if she ran for Parliament. But to counter that, Nia Griffith, who is only in her first term is slowly gaining popularity among constituents as an intelligent and capable MP.

After the local government elections in May, Blog Menai predicts the result as follows:

Llanelli: Scrutinising the local election figures I believe Plaid will take this seat for the first time in the generals with a majority of more than 5%. Helen Mary Jones will hold the seat easily in the Assembly as well.

It is true that Plaid performed exceptionally well during the 2008 local elections, essentially turning the constituency into majority Plaid. Can the party continue the momentum and harness the strength of being main opposition in County Hall? They are after all opposing a deeply unpopular administration.

There are four main factors that will determine a Plaid win:

1. The unpopularity of Labour. If Labour continues to be unpopular and the Economy continues to worsen the people of Llanelli will really feel the pinch. Also, Labour lost the seat in the last election because of Catherine Thomas’ inability to stand up for Llanelli’s Prince Phillip Hospital. Will there be such a powerful issue overhanging the next election?

2. The Westminster question. Can Plaid convince the electorate that they can and will make a difference in the House, or will voters just defect from Labour to the Tories or Lib Dems. They traditionally get more votes for a Welsh general or local election.

3. The Manifesto. Llanelli is a Socialist heartland, not a hotbed for Nationalism. If Plaid Cymru runs on a promise to uphold Socialism and fight for jobs and workers’ rights, they will gain votes. Any mention of independence and it will turn most voters away.

4. The Candidate. Will Plaid’s candidate be strong enough to fight Labour and to highlight his/her policies/strengths? The candidates’ personality will also be important. Helen Mary Jones has won big victories in Llanelli because people like her, not necessarily her party.

The variables that will determine the result, but it seems that for the first time since 1922 Llanelli is no longer a safe Labour seat. I’m sure this will spread throughout South Wales in time. It’s bad news for Labour but good news for democracy.